Posted: 09 Dec 2007 08:24 AM CST
THE RACE: The presidential race for the Republican, Democratic nominations in Connecticut.
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THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 45 percent
Barack Obama, 19 percent
John Edwards, 7 percent
Chris Dodd, 5 percent
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THE NUMBERS - REPUBLICANS
Rudy Giuliani, 41 percent
Mitt Romney, 13 percent
John McCain, 12 percent
Fred Thompson, 7 percent
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OF INTEREST:
The poll shows that Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd doesn't have much support in his home state, with 55 percent of those surveyed saying the state's senior senator is spending too much time on the campaign trail and not enough time serving as senator. Seventy percent of Connecticut voters surveyed say Dodd should drop out of the presidential race. Among Democrats, 68 percent want him to call it quits, while 26 percent say he should stay in the race.
In head-to-head general election matchups, the poll shows New York Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton with support from 45 percent of those surveyed to 44 percent for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
The survey of 1,029 registered voters was conducted by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Nov. 1-5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll includes 291 Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points, and 385 Democrats with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
WASHINGTON -- Republican presidential front-runner Rudy Giuliani is finding that tough foreign-policy stands are helping him connect with social and religious conservatives, constituencies where the former New York City mayor's support has been seen as weakest.
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QUESTION OF THE DAYThose conservatives, a bedrock of the party's base in recent elections, are unhappy with Mr. Giuliani's positions in support of abortion and gay rights, as well as his two divorces. But Mr. Giuliani's positioning himself as a tough leader in the fight against Islamist extremism and threats from Iran, and his staunch support for Israel, have kept many social conservatives in his corner despite their misgivings about his stands on domestic issues.
"I think that a lot of evangelical voters see abortion as a moral issue, but a lot of them also see defending Western civilization against this enemy as a moral issue," says Gary Bauer, a religious-conservative activist and 2000 Republican presidential hopeful. "Where the jury is out is once the voters understand where [Giuliani] is on both of those things, will the war still trump those social issues?"
Strong backing of Israel, in particular, is important to some religious conservatives, who have developed their own close bonds to the Jewish state and its oversight of Biblical lands.
This support was on display yesterday, when the candidate told a Republican Jewish Coalition gathering here that as president he would be deeply suspicious of land-for-peace talks with the Palestinians. He said neither Americans nor Israelis should negotiate with militant Islamic leaders and organizations that he believes are committed to destroying Western society.
He drew applause while recounting a 1995 episode when he ordered that the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat be ejected from a concert for world leaders at Lincoln Center. "The reason I did it was that I knew from my own investigations of Arafat that he was a murderer and a terrorist," Mr. Giuliani said. "This whole idea of holding him on a morally equivalent plane to the prime minister of Israel...was a terrible, terrible mistake."
Recent polls suggest that Mr. Giuliani's hard-line positions are helping him make inroads with social and religious conservatives. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted late last month found that 39% of people who identified themselves as evangelical Christians had a "somewhat positive" impression of Mr. Giuliani.
Republican candidate Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator who has campaigned as a Reagan-style conservative, registered a "very positive" impression among 26% of evangelicals. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, whose Mormon faith has raised concerns among some conservative Christian voters, made a "somewhat positive" impression with 31% of those evangelicals polled.
Mr. Giuliani may be playing a risky political game by identifying so closely with the personalities and policies promoted by President Bush's administration. Polls show that the American population is increasingly disillusioned with the war in Iraq and that there is little support for a military strike against Iran. Mr. Giuliani's hard-line stance may succeed in helping him shore up support from the Republican base, but, if he is nominated, could undermine his prospects during the general election, analysts say.
"Surrounding yourself with these neoconservative voices isn't sustainable," said Steven Clemons, of the New America Foundation, a centrist Washington-based policy institution.
The former mayor has taken perhaps the hardest line among the presidential candidates on Iran. He has repeatedly stated his willingness to use military force to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And he has described Iran's leadership as an irrational force with whom negotiations are probably hopeless.
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"We need to isolate the terror-funding theocrats" in Tehran, Mr. Giuliani told the Republican Jewish Coalition. "You have to stand up to dictators, to tyrants and to terrorists" as "weakness invites attack."
Despite the Bush administration's troubles in Iraq, Mr. Giuliani's campaign is recruiting from neoconservative think tanks and publications that lobbied the White House to launch the 2003 invasion. Mr. Giuliani has courted them as allies in the fight against Islamist extremism, say his aides.
Last week, Mr. Giuliani's team named David Frum, the former Bush speechwriter, as a senior foreign-policy adviser. Mr. Frum helped coin the phrase "axis of evil" in describing the governments of Iran, Iraq and North Korea during President Bush's 2002 State of the Union speech.
Mr. Giuliani will seek to woo more conservative Christian voters when he speaks Friday at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, along with other major Republican candidates.
--Michael M. Phillips contributed to this article.
Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com
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by Mark Silva
From that national perspective of who's on top and who's not, Republican Rudy Giuliani remains on top of the GOP pack of presidential candidates.
This overlooks the fact that Republican Mitt Romney fares better in the latest survey of Iowans likely to turn out for the nation's first nominating caucuses in January -- yet Romney has not gained any traction on the national stage, the Gallup Poll reports.
As the Republican candidates prepare to face off again today, this time in Dearborn, Mich., the newest Gallup Poll shows that Giuliani stands 12 points stronger among Republicans nationally than former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson -- who will make his first appearance on the party's debate stage this afternoon -- and 16 points ahead of Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
The poll finds former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee moving within two points of Romney, whose nationwide support among Republicans remains mired in single digits.
In his summary of "The Race as of Oct. 9,'' Gallup Editor-in-chief Frank Newport reports:
"The basic structure of the national Republican race for president has remained relatively stable since early September. If there has been a change of note over the last several months, it has been the failure of Mitt Romney to capitalize on his mini-surge when he won the Iowa straw poll in early August,'' - again, bypassing talk of Romney's gain in Iowa polling.
"John McCain has, at the same time, recovered his standing after slipping in August,'' Newport says of his Oct. 4-7 survey. "There has been a slight but steady increase in support for Mike Huckabee, despite his very low name identification.''
For more, see the Gallup Poll reporl:
Former LA Mayor Backs Giuliani
By ROBERT JABLON – 4 hours ago
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan endorsed Rudy Giuliani for president Friday, then suggested the one-time New York mayor is too liberal for conservative voters in the California primary.
Riordan, a moderate Republican who was elected to two terms as Los Angeles mayor, spoke as Giuliani campaigned in the city and visited Riordan's famed restaurant, The Pantry.
"Rudy Giuliani is too liberal for the solid, right-wing Republicans in California, that part of the party," Riordan said. "But I do believe, when it comes to the presidency and the national election, these people may put that apart and look at him as the type of leader our country needs."
Riordan said some conservative voters "are going to have litmus tests on everything from gun control to abortion to other things. He's going to be hurt there."
The key for Giuliani, according to Riordan, is to emphasize how his experience as New York mayor would make him a good president.
"He did a fabulous job running New York City and of course in 9-11 he showed that he has the feel of a great leader," Riordan said.
During a campaign stop, Giuliani faced questions as to why he skipped a debate Thursday focused on minority issues. He said that he would like to do away with all planned debates and focus on fundraising because the Democrats are doing better.
"I get invitations to a dozen debates" and cannot make all of them, Giuliani said.
The top four Republican presidential candidates — Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mitt Romney — cited scheduling conflicts in declining to attend the debate.
Other GOP candidates criticized the decision, with Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback calling it "a disgrace to our country."
Giuliani said he attended events that had been planned weeks and months in advance. He also said he would rather not take part in any debates to focus on raising funds to fight the Democratic presidential contender next year.
"Their fundraising has been phenomenal. And ours has been good, compared on prior models, but we still haven't stepped up to the kind of fundraising they're doing," Giuliani said.
Combined, Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have raised more than $100 million. Giuliani has raised more than $33 million, with the third-quarter fundraising deadline ending Sunday.
Giuliani Says He's MoveOn's 'Worst Nightmare'
The spat between Rudy Giuliani and MoveOn.Org has not, well, moved on yet.
In a new radio ad, which is now running in Iowa, the former New York mayor calls MoveOn the "most powerful left wing group in the country" and designates himself their "worst nightmare."
"They know Rudy is a Republican who can beat the Democrats," an announcer in the ad says. "And they know, no matter what they say- Rudy will never, ever back down."
In response, the MoveOn group announced today it has double the amount of money it is spending on an anti-Giuliani television ad in Iowa, from $50,000 to $100,000, and will also run the ad nationally on CNN. The ad hits Giuliani for quitting a congressional panel on Iraq strategy.
"It's no surprise that Giuliani can't respond to our charge that he went AWOL on Iraq," the group's executive director, Eli Pariser said. "Maybe he thinks voters care more about what he says about MoveOn than what he's failed to do to end the war."
Even as Giuliani continued the battle with MoveOn, rival presidential candidate Mitt Romney launched a new radio spot in Iowa which attempts to reinforce Romney's opposition to gay marriage.
"Governor Mitt Romney - he stood up for traditional marriage and fought the activist ruling every step," an announcer says. Later, he continues: "Now, Mitt Romney is standing up for traditional marriage in Iowa, opposing the Polk County decision to permit same-sex marriage."
--Michael D. Shear
Click on this comprehensive look at the 2008 GOP Campaign
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
Captain Mark
