Tuesday, July 10, 2007

USAT/Gallup Poll: Steady leads for Giuliani & Clinton

By: Mark Memmott and Jill Lawrence

USAT/Gallup Poll: Steady leads for Giuliani & Clinton
Fresh results from the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, parts of which are being released this hour:
• In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has a 10 percentage point lead nationally over former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., maintains his place in third.
• In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has a 16-point lead over second-place Sen. Barack Obama. Former vice president Al Gore, who has repeatedly said he has no plans to run for the White House in 2008, comes in third.
The breakdowns:

Giuliani has the support of 30% of "Republicans and Republican leaners," vs. 28% a month ago; Thompson comes in with 20%, vs. 19% in June; McCain has 16%, vs. 18% a month earlier.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney remains in fourth, at 9% vs. 7% in June.
The current numbers for the rest of the Republicans included in the survey: Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, 6%; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, 2%; Rep. Duncan Hunter, 2%; Rep. Tom Tancredo, 2%; Sen. Sam Brownback, 1%; Sen. Chuck Hagel, 1%; former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, 1%. Neither former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore nor Rep. Ron Paul registered any support.
None of the Republican numbers change significantly if Gingrich is removed from the poll.
The survey of 394 Republicans and voters who "lean" Republican has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Clinton has the support of 37% of the "Democrats and Democratic leaners" surveyed, vs. 33% a month earlier. Obama's support is unchanged at 21%. Gore is the choice of 16%, vs. 18% in June.
Former North Carolina senator John Edwards remains in fourth, with 13% support vs. 11% in June.
The current numbers for the rest of the Democrats included in the survey: Sen. Joseph Biden, 3%; Rep. Dennis Kucinich, 2%; Gov. Bill Richardson, 2%; former senator Mike Gravel, 1%. Sen. Christopher Dodd drew no support.
If Gore is removed from the survey: Clinton gains 5 percentage points (to 42%); Obama picks up 5 percentage points (to 26%); Edwards picks up 3 percentage points (to 16%); Richardson picks up 2 percentage points (to 4%); and Biden picks up 1 percentage point (to 3%).
The survey of 516 Democrats and voters who "lean" Democratic has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

The latest numbers are all based on a national telephone survey conducted Friday through Sunday (July 6-8).
There will be more from the poll later at USATODAY.com and in Tuesday's editions of USA TODAY.

Update at 1:45 p.m. ET:
Clinton's pollster and political strategist, Mark Penn, has written a memo on why he thinks polls and other indicators signal that the senator "is better positioned today than ever before" to be the next president.

Posted by Mark Memmott at 12:40 PM/ET, July 09, 2007 in Democrats, Polls, Presidential race, 2008, Republicans