Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Political Buzz: Large Loss Could Be The End Of Clinton Campaign A recurring theme is today's media coverage is the danger the contest poses to Clinton's fortunes. In a front-page story, the Wall Street Journal says Obama is "strongly favored -- even within Hillary Clinton's camp -- to win a second straight victory in today's New Hampshire Democratic primary," threatening "to swamp her in the next two states as well." Some "Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could," and "several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers" about endorsing him "over his more experienced colleague." The Washington Post reports on its front page that Clinton "is frantically trying to slow the momentum of a surging Obama" in a race that could have "enormous significance." The Washington Times says Clinton "was forced to fend off rumors that she would end her presidential bid should she lose today." NPR's Day To Day said, "Obama heads into tomorrow's primary with a strong lead. A number of polls have it in the double digits over Hillary Rodham Clinton, and many of those polled mentioned the word 'electability.' That's a term that before Iowa was more closely associated with Sen. Clinton."

McCain Predicts Victory The New Hampshire Union Leader reports, "A confident John McCain was predicting victory as he toured New Hampshire yesterday addressing hundreds of enthusiastic supporters at each stop along the way." In Manchester, McCain "told the crowd a New Hampshire win and he would 'march on to victory.'" The Hill says McCain "addressed many supports and throngs of press," emphasizing that he "wants 'to restore trust and confidence in government.'" The Washington Post has a front-page profile headlined "The Guy With The Bus Is On A Roll," saying there is "a hint of the spirit of 2000 in McCain's campaign."

ABC World News reported, "For the first time today," Romney "suggested he would be satisfied with second place here." Romney: "If I come in a second place finish, that will actually say that I am clearly one of the leading contenders." Berman: "It will also say that he is zero for two in the first major contests despite, once again, spending more than $7 million on ads, more than all his opponents combined. And it would be particularly stinging, because New Hampshire is his backyard."

The Concord Monitor reports that Romney on Monday "played down expectations and ramped up his biggest-in-the-Republican-field campaign machine." While "Romney had long said his candidacy hinged on wins in early states, he's retooled that strategy since his second-place finish in Iowa's leadoff caucus. ... Yesterday, he noted his finish in Wyoming's Republican caucus and argued that second place in New Hampshire would be good enough. 'If I come in a second-place finish, that will actually say that I am clearly one of the leading contenders,' Romney said. 'I will have come in second in Iowa, first in Wyoming, second in New Hampshire. That will mean that I probably have more votes than anybody else in those first three states.'"

Romney Tops McCain In Single Poll The latest Suffolk University/7News poll shows the opposite trend of most other surveys Romney has actually made up significant ground since the day of the Iowa caucuses, when he trailed McCain 29%-25% in the tracking. Among 500 likely Republican voters, Romney is now at 30%, followed by McCain, 27%; Giuliani, 10%; and Huckabee, 9%. On the Democratic side, the Suffolk University tracking poll of 500 likely Democratic voters has Obama at 35%; Clinton, 34%; and Edwards, 15%. However, the closeness of the result might not be much consolation to the Clinton campaign Clinton led Obama 39%-23% in the tracking on Thursday, the day of the Iowa caucuses, and has seen her lead erode steadily every day since then. The survey was taken January 5-6.

A CBS News poll of 323 likely Democratic voters taken January 5-6 shows Obama leading with 35%, followed by Clinton with 28% and Edwards with 19%. The same sample of Democrats, interviewed back in November, had backed Clinton over Obama 39%-19%. CBS says they reached too small a sample of Republican voters to give a statistically valid sample, but they noted that McCain was gaining support and Romney was losing it.

A Rasmussen automated poll of 1,203 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 38%, followed by Clinton, 28%; Edwards, 18%; Richardson, 8%; and Kucinich, 4%. Among 1,094 likely Republican voters, McCain leads with 32%, followed by Romney, 31%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 10%; Paul, 8%; and Thompson, 3%.

The Zogby International /C-Span tracking poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-6 has Obama at 39%; followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 6%. In yesterday's release, which covered polling done January 2-5, Clinton led Obama 31%-30%. In Zogby's final pre-Iowa survey of New Hampshire sentiment, Clinton led Obama 32%-26%. On the GOP side, the poll of 834 likely Republican voters shows little change in recent days; McCain leads with 34%; followed by Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 10%; Giuliani, 9%; and Paul, 6%.

A Marist College Poll shows Obama leading with 36%, followed by Clinton with 28% and Edwards with 22%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney at 31% and Huckabee with 13%. Marist surveyed 788 likely Democratic primary voters and 628 likely GOP primary voters on January 5-6.

A Fox News /Opinion Dynamics poll taken January 4-6 shows Obama leading with 32%, followed by Clinton with 28%; Edwards, 18%; and Richardson, 6%. Among Republicans, McCain leads with 34%, followed by Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 5%.

A CNN/WMUR poll of 599 likely Democratic voters has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 30%; Edwards, 16%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 492 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 31%, Romney 26%, Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 10%; and Paul, 10%.

An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted January 6-7 has Obama at 40%, followed by Clinton, 31%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 4%. Among 600 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 31%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 13%; and Paul, 9%.

New Hampshire Polls Show McCain, Obama Poised To Win

As voters head to the polls today in New Hampshire, Barack Obama leads in all 8 new polls released in the last 24 hours, while John McCain tops Mitt Romney in 7 of the 8. The Washington Post reports, "Polls point to a mirror image of the Republican contest of 2000 and the Democratic race four years ago. If the results match those forecasts, Barack Obama will have followed John Kerry in securing the Democratic nomination by backing up his victory in the Iowa caucuses with a decisive win," while McCain "could once again defeat the early Republican favorite, as he did in 2000, setting up a further set of showdowns in other states."

Final Tracks

Posted: 08 Jan 2008 06:26 AM CST

NASHUA - Reuters/C-SPan/Zogby is out with its final tracking poll (Jan 5-7): Democrats Obama 42 (+3 vs. previous day) Clinton 29 (nc) Edwards 17 (-2) Republicans McCain 36 (+2 vs. previous day)...

Where Things Stand on Game Day

Posted: 08 Jan 2008 04:52 AM CST

NASHUA - All indications point to another day of massive turnout. It'll be cloudy but dry across most of the state, with temperatures hanging around 50 degrees. Secretary of State Bill Gardner is...