Giuliani, McCain say no to straw poll

Giuliani, McCain say no to straw poll
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer 18 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Republican presidential contenders Rudy Giuliani and John McCain (news, bio, voting record) said Wednesday they won't compete in a high-profile Iowa straw poll, rendering the decades-old contest all but meaningless.
The decision clears the way for top rival Mitt Romney in the early test of organizational strength.
"I just got a win of sorts, with the two national front-runners realizing they couldn't keep up with me in the first state in the presidential sweepstakes," Romney told The Associated Press as he campaigned in New Hampshire. "Their backing out makes me feel 10 feet tall."
Both Giuliani, the former New York mayor, and McCain, an Arizona senator, said they would still compete in the state's lead-off caucuses in the GOP presidential nomination process.
"We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses in January," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager, even as he announced the decision to skip the Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames, Iowa.
Hours later, Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager, told the AP that McCain won't participate in light of Giuliani's announcement because "it's clear that the Ames straw poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities."
That leaves Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, as the only top-tier GOP candidate to commit to the nonbinding contest. He has put extraordinary resources into building a statewide campaign and preparing for the event — an investment that now may be unnecessary.
Romney claimed the McCain-Giuliani withdrawal as a victory, contending that even without those two, a win in the straw poll will be a boost to his campaign's energy.
"They read the handwriting on the wall and are packing up their tents and going elsewhere," Romney said. "This is a huge boost for me and my team. This will energize my team from across the country to realize this campaign is winning and is winning early."
Held at Iowa State University, the straw poll is a dress rehearsal that allows GOP candidates to measure their organizational strength months before the caucuses, a one-day contest that requires a strong get-out-the-vote operation.
Republican-only straw polls have been held in every competitive presidential cycle since 1979, and no candidate has skipped the event and won Iowa the following January.
Iowa GOP Chairman Ray Hoffman said both Giuliani and McCain will be hurt by not participating.
"They are missing a huge opportunity," Hoffman said, calling the event a cheap way to promote their candidacies. "I don't get it. I don't understand why they are doing this. I still believe we are going to have a record turnout and I believe the advantage is going to those who participate. This could create a big opening."
A state GOP fundraiser, the straw poll is expensive for campaigns and can cost millions. Because anyone with a ticket can vote, campaigns traditionally purchase blocks to distribute to their supporters and set up air-conditioned tents filled with food and entertainment.
The decisions by Giuliani and McCain reflect the pressures of 2008's rapid-succession primary calendar that is forcing campaigns to rethink their strategies and use money when and where it counts.
Indeed, Giuliani's campaign attributed the decision to finances, saying the estimated $3 million he would spend would be better used to lay the groundwork for winning the caucuses.
But the move also amounts to recognition by Giuliani that McCain and Romney may be better prepared to turn out backers in Iowa in just two months' time. Seven months before voting begins, Giuliani leads the Republican pack in national polls but is in a tight race in Iowa and trails both in building state operations.
For months, observers have questioned whether Giuliani would bypass Iowa altogether to focus on competing later in delegate-rich states such as New York, Florida, New Jersey and California, where his moderate positions on social issue has more appeal.
DuHaime countered that suggestion, saying: "There's no de-emphasis at all on the first states. We are 100 percent committed to winning Iowa and believe we will do so." He said the campaign will beef up Iowa staff and Giuliani will visit often.
McCain didn't compete in the caucuses in his failed 2000 run, but he has since put together a solid Iowa team and is vigorously campaigning in the state. He'll hold four town hall meetings there in the coming days.
But McCain significantly lags behind Romney and Giuliani in fundraising and cash-on-hand, and the senator's decision to bypass the event will allow him to save money — and avoid a potentially embarrassing finish. Some Republicans in Iowa still view him skeptically for his rebellious streak as well as his positions on immigration and ethanol.
Nelson indicated the senator will cede no ground, saying: "John McCain has built a solid grassroots organization in Iowa."
Bob Haus, a veteran GOP activist in Iowa who is uncommitted in the race, said anyone who skips the event will have a difficult time convincing supporters that they can bypass the August test but still compete in the caucuses. "You can't sit out half the game and expect to be the effective closer," he said.
In 1987, Pat Robertson stunned Republicans by winning the straw poll, a victory that vaulted him to second in the caucuses. But George H.W. Bush captured the nomination and the presidency.
In August 1999, Texas Gov. George W. Bush was the GOP front-runner. He won the Iowa straw poll and months later, the nomination on the way to capturing the presidency.
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Associated Press writers Mike Glover in Des Moines, Iowa, and Philip Elliott in Manchester, N.H., contributed to this report.