Congress unlikely to act on Utah/D.C. bill
By Bob Bernick Jr.Deseret Morning News
Next week, a special legislative committee will begin taking around the state three U.S. House redistricting plans. On Dec. 1, GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. will call a special legislative session where one of these plans — or some variation drawn up by Republican legislators behind closed doors — will officially be approved. That plan will be given to Congress during its lame-duck session with the hope that House and Senate members will approve a bill that gives Utah one extra U.S. House seat and gives the District of Columbia a full-voting House seat. The U.S. House will go from 435 to 437 members, and the long-sought-after goal of giving full representation to residents of Washington, D.C., will be achieved. Or not. And the "or not" side seems to be winning, if you believe Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah. Bennett, a member of the GOP-controlled U.S. Senate leadership, says that the Utah/D.C. bill has little chance of passage in the two-week lame-duck session of Congress. Huntsman says if the Utah/D.C. bill is not passed before the first of the year — when Democrats take over control in both the U.S. House and Senate — then Utah is "out of business." He sees little chance of Utah getting an extra seat, as Democrats try to just give D.C. a full-voting seat — something Republicans will no doubt oppose. If all the lame-ducks do line up for Utah, however, then officials say there could be new U.S. House elections in Utah next spring — as all four newly drawn seats must find representatives. Politics is always part of redistricting. But redrawing the seats in mid-decade throws another curve — who in the current Legislature may want to run for office in the newly drawn district? First to the plate may be Utah House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy. Ironically, Curtis barely survived re-election to his state House seat several weeks ago, a canvass this week showing he won by just 16 votes. There will be a recount, but in this age of electronic voting, recounts usually hold up. Curtis has around $200,000 in his personal campaign account, clearly more than he needs to run his own (if overly close) Utah House race. Leaders often donate to their party candidates so newly elected lawmakers will support them in leadership races. But Curtis had no challenger to his second, two-year term as speaker. So he's sitting on a lot of cash — and most likely will be in the new 4th Congressional District. Others who could be in the race on the GOP side include state Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Draper, who just lost to U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson in the 2nd Congressional District. There's John Swallow, who lost to Matheson twice, and a slew of other would-be congressmen. All three redistricting plans being taken out for public comment have the southern part of Salt Lake County as the population base of the fourth seat. And two of the plans — Plans I and J if you are watching closely — make Matheson's 2nd District more Democratic. In heavily Republican Utah that may not be saying much — but Matheson won re-election three weeks ago with nearly 60 percent of the vote, his best-ever showing. So it is clear that — at least until the 2011 normal redistricting — Matheson would be better off politically under two of the plans. That doesn't satisfy Utah Democratic Party Executive Director Todd Taylor, who says the quick redistricting now is just another example of a "corrupt system" run by the majority Utah Republicans. Plan A — the third plan going out for comment — is the four-seat plan adopted by the lawmakers in 2001. Back then, legislators adopted a four-seat alternative because state lawyers were suing to get a fourth seat. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Utah, and so since then we've been electing three, not four, U.S. House members. And Plan A does not necessarily help Matheson. In fact, it could hurt him politically because he — as he did in the 2001 redistricting plan — will get a whole bunch of new constituents. If Utah gets a fourth seat in the lame-duck Congress, and there are new U.S. House elections in the spring, Matheson could face a bunch of GOP-leaning voters who have not had the chance of casting a ballot for him before. But there are a lot of "ifs" that have to become "facts" before that happens. Most likely, Congress will not act on the Utah/D.C. bill in December. And when Democrats take control in 2007, they could just decide to let things ride until the 2010 Census gives Utah another U.S. House seat.
Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com
Next week, a special legislative committee will begin taking around the state three U.S. House redistricting plans. On Dec. 1, GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. will call a special legislative session where one of these plans — or some variation drawn up by Republican legislators behind closed doors — will officially be approved. That plan will be given to Congress during its lame-duck session with the hope that House and Senate members will approve a bill that gives Utah one extra U.S. House seat and gives the District of Columbia a full-voting House seat. The U.S. House will go from 435 to 437 members, and the long-sought-after goal of giving full representation to residents of Washington, D.C., will be achieved. Or not. And the "or not" side seems to be winning, if you believe Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah. Bennett, a member of the GOP-controlled U.S. Senate leadership, says that the Utah/D.C. bill has little chance of passage in the two-week lame-duck session of Congress. Huntsman says if the Utah/D.C. bill is not passed before the first of the year — when Democrats take over control in both the U.S. House and Senate — then Utah is "out of business." He sees little chance of Utah getting an extra seat, as Democrats try to just give D.C. a full-voting seat — something Republicans will no doubt oppose. If all the lame-ducks do line up for Utah, however, then officials say there could be new U.S. House elections in Utah next spring — as all four newly drawn seats must find representatives. Politics is always part of redistricting. But redrawing the seats in mid-decade throws another curve — who in the current Legislature may want to run for office in the newly drawn district? First to the plate may be Utah House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy. Ironically, Curtis barely survived re-election to his state House seat several weeks ago, a canvass this week showing he won by just 16 votes. There will be a recount, but in this age of electronic voting, recounts usually hold up. Curtis has around $200,000 in his personal campaign account, clearly more than he needs to run his own (if overly close) Utah House race. Leaders often donate to their party candidates so newly elected lawmakers will support them in leadership races. But Curtis had no challenger to his second, two-year term as speaker. So he's sitting on a lot of cash — and most likely will be in the new 4th Congressional District. Others who could be in the race on the GOP side include state Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Draper, who just lost to U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson in the 2nd Congressional District. There's John Swallow, who lost to Matheson twice, and a slew of other would-be congressmen. All three redistricting plans being taken out for public comment have the southern part of Salt Lake County as the population base of the fourth seat. And two of the plans — Plans I and J if you are watching closely — make Matheson's 2nd District more Democratic. In heavily Republican Utah that may not be saying much — but Matheson won re-election three weeks ago with nearly 60 percent of the vote, his best-ever showing. So it is clear that — at least until the 2011 normal redistricting — Matheson would be better off politically under two of the plans. That doesn't satisfy Utah Democratic Party Executive Director Todd Taylor, who says the quick redistricting now is just another example of a "corrupt system" run by the majority Utah Republicans. Plan A — the third plan going out for comment — is the four-seat plan adopted by the lawmakers in 2001. Back then, legislators adopted a four-seat alternative because state lawyers were suing to get a fourth seat. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Utah, and so since then we've been electing three, not four, U.S. House members. And Plan A does not necessarily help Matheson. In fact, it could hurt him politically because he — as he did in the 2001 redistricting plan — will get a whole bunch of new constituents. If Utah gets a fourth seat in the lame-duck Congress, and there are new U.S. House elections in the spring, Matheson could face a bunch of GOP-leaning voters who have not had the chance of casting a ballot for him before. But there are a lot of "ifs" that have to become "facts" before that happens. Most likely, Congress will not act on the Utah/D.C. bill in December. And when Democrats take control in 2007, they could just decide to let things ride until the 2010 Census gives Utah another U.S. House seat.
Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com
