The End of the Dream?

September 25, 2006

THE END OF THE DREAM?....Karl Rove has long boasted about constructing an electoral strategy that doesn't just win elections for Republicans but instead puts them in a permanent majority. A big part of that strategy has been his effort to woo Hispanics — who tend to be culturally conservative and not as historically bound to the Democratic Party as blacks — into the GOP fold. George Bush won a sizeable chunk of the Hispanic vote when he ran for governor in Texas, and if the Republican Party could do the same thing nationwide it might well convert America from a 50-50 nation to something more like a 55-45 nation — with Republicans getting the double-nickel.
Today that dream is in shambles, and in the current issue of the Monthly Rachel Morris reports that talk radio shoulders a big part of the blame:
Until [mid-2005], Rove’s strategy of wooing Latinos without actually doing anything that might offend the conservative base had worked remarkably well—perhaps because his outreach to the base and to Hispanics had advanced along separate tracks. So far, he hadn’t been confronted with anything that might cause these tracks to converge, forcing the disparate elements of the Republican voting coalition towards collision.
The convergence began on right-wing talk radio....Casting around for something to talk about, hosts discovered the Minutemen. Illegal immigration has always been a perennial source of talk-radio outrage, but the Minutemen, with their warnings that terrorists could enter the country via Mexico, set off a veritable storm. Suddenly, the self-styled border patrols, along with their champion in the House, Rep. Tom Tancredo, became fixtures on radio shows and cable TV.
According to a former senior White House official, the administration became concerned by this phenomenon and conducted some research. Staffers listened to hours of talk radio and found that the obsession with illegal immigration on talk radio had appeared virtually from nowhere. “Two years ago, this wasn’t on the radar screen,” he said. House Republicans, already eyeing the midterm elections, also took note. By then, Tancredo’s immigration-reform caucus had grown to more than 80 members (in 2001, it only had 15).
Live by the sword, die by the sword. But hey — at least they've still got the Voter Vault!

Something tells me that's a pretty short-term advantage, though.—Kevin Drum 3:44 PM Permalink Trackbacks Comments (48)

Political Calendar

Political Calendar

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- Sept 25: Gov. Huntsman to give welcoming remarks to Polyurethanes Industry, 10 a.m., Grand America Hotel.- Sept 25: RadioWest on KUER FM 90: "Uncivilized Beasts and Shameless Hellions," 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. John Burnett has spent more than 20 years reporting for NPR. Monday on RadioWest, he'll talk to Doug about his new book, Uncivilized Beasts and Shameless Hellions. In it, he takes his audience even deeper into the stories - first hand experiences from the events that have shaped our world.- Sept 26: Whistle Stop Tour with LaVar Christensen around Iron and Washington Counties. The theme is Vote Red Vote Republican, America Needs Utah. The bus will be traveling with every Southern Utah Legislator, the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General and other Republican elected officials.- Sept 26: Administrative Rules Review Committee, 9 a.m., room W135.- Sept 26: Hinckley Institute of Politics Forum: Campaign 2006 The Race for Salt Lake District Attorney Debate, 10:45 a.m., University of Utah, Orson Spencer Hall, Room 255. Debate includes Simarjit Gill, Rob Latham, and Lohra Miller. Kirk L. Jowers (moderator) Director, Hinckley Institute of Politics. Co-sponsor – Utah Criminal Justice Center.- Sept 26: The Great Immigration Debate: Both Sides Speak Out, 11 a.m. to 12 p.m., Salt Lake Community College, Student Events Center in the Student Center Building, 4600 So. Redwood Road, Taylorsville. Hosted by the Freedom Society and the Hispanic/Latino Student Club.- Sept 26: Gov. Huntsman to attend Rural Utah Legislative Rally in Cedar City at 12 p.m. at the Southern Utah University Rotunda, and St. George at 3 p.m. at Dixie State College. - Sept 27: Hinckley Institute of Politics Forum: U.S. - Iran Relations, 8:35 a.m., University of Utah, Orson Spencer Hall, Room 255. Guest is Roxane Farmanfarmaian, Donner Scholar of Transatlantic Relations at the Centre of International Studies at Cambridge University; author, Blood and Oil: A Prince’s Memoir of Iran, From the Shah to the Ayatollah Cosponsor-Middle East Center.
- See the entire calendar

UPD Washington Watch

U.S. Chamber Money for Matheson
Rep. Jim Matheson made the front page of the Wall Street Journal (paid subscription required) on Friday. A chart accompanying the article notes that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is spending $344,000 on TV ads supporting the congressman, the third highest amount in the country. For the first time, the Chamber is spending money on Democrats it wants to see re-elected.
Bennett to Greens: Take the Deal
Article: "[Environmentalists are balking] at a bill being pushed by Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R) and Rep. Jim Matheson (D), both of Utah, that would sell as much as 40 square miles of federal land -- nearly twice the size of Manhattan -- and use the profits to pay for a water pipeline and other area projects. Bennett, whose proposal would sell off as much as 25,000 acres of federal land in Utah's fast-growing Washington County while protecting other red-rock areas, said environmentalists would be wise to take the deal he is offering. His advice to them, he said in an interview, is: 'Take it and then keep arguing for more, that's your job. I don't object to you earning a salary for a hopeless cause'" (Washington Post).
Matheson: $$ for Airport
Rep. Matheson says "the federal Department of Transportation has announced a grant of $17 million towards acquiring land for the proposed St. George Airport" (see press release).
Cannon Endorses Border Bills
Rep. Chris Cannon votes "for three major pieces of legislation that will help increase border security and crack down on illegal immigration" (see press release).

Utah Policy Blog Watch by Golden Webb

UPD Blog Watch

At the House Democratic Caucus blog, Rep. Rosalind McGee says: "I suppose one of the luxuries of being a Democrat in Utah is you don't have to apologize for voting against your conscience, because you don't HAVE to vote against your conscience. Regardless of your party however, it is always difficult to listen to good people apologize for bad decisions. Rep. Scott Wyatt's ... speech on the House floor during the recent special session ... was once such event. Such speeches are generally predictable, but jaws dropped when Scott said, 'I submit that the best thing we can do for the children of Utah is to invest in their future by stimulating the economy.' Had I really heard that? I conferred with some of my colleagues, and sure enough my hearing is just as good as Ralph Becker's. ... It was the first time in my life I've heard someone attempt to explain how a tax cut for the wealthy is in the 'best interest of our children' and that economic stimulus is a long-term benefit whereas 'investing in education is a short term benefit'" (see also here, here, and here)... Rep. Craig Frank relates: "[An acquaintance said] someday he'd like to get involved in the legislature and inquired as to the salary of a Representative. That's always a loaded question ... (the implication, often, is legislators are a bunch of 'fat cats' making exorbitant amounts of cash on the backs of the citizenry). $120 a day, was my answer. $120 a day?! Gulp! And then the next, almost predictable, obligatory, sympathetic question: How do you live on that? Well, the fact is, I don't live on that. And if it weren't for my 'real' job in the structural steel industry, I could never afford to serve in the state legislature"... CoolestFamilyEver explains why "blogging is politics for the lazy"... At Out of Context, George Pyle says: "The 2nd District congressman from Utah, Jim Matheson, has often been attacked for being a DINO -- Democrat in Name Only ... The Realpolitik excuse offered by observers ... is that ever since his Salt Lake County-only congressional district was shamelessly gerrymandered by the Republican Legislature to include scads of red-state voters in red-rock country, Matheson has had to scamper to his right to keep his job. Now, as part of a political deal to gain Utah the fourth seat in the House that it was rooked out of after the 2000 Census, the state's Republican leaders are basically promising to gerrymander Matheson into a safe seat. They've come up with a tentative map that gives Matheson all of Salt Lake City and its nearest suburbs, plus Robert Redford country up in Park City. ... [But as] solidly liberal as the new district stands to be ... it would be entirely possible that he'd be vulnerable to a challenger from the left, making Congress a little bit more liberal, if not officially more Democratic. The Republicans may have outsmarted themselves on this deal. They say Rocky Anderson's looking for a job" (see also here and here)... Hotline On Call notes: "We can't find the link for this, but it appears as if those Fox News appearances are paying off for Mitt Romney. From the MIRS Capitol Capsule: 'Fox News commentator Bill O'Reilly told a gathering here today that Massachusetts Gov. and former Michigander Mitt Romney is his early favorite to win the 2008 presidential election over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in what he sees now as the likely head-to-head race. Speaking at the Michigan Future Forum, sponsored by the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, O'Reilly said former frontrunner U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will be hurt for his "soft" positions on the terrorist interrogation and border security issues'" (see also here and here).