Congressman Joe Cannon?

Lisa, I think you made a little mistake here?

Poll shows challengers are significantly behind
Copyright 2006 Deseret Morning News
By Lisa Riley RocheDeseret Morning News
So far, voters are only moderately interested in the upcoming general election, according to a new poll — not surprising, since the incumbents at the top of the ticket all hold strong leads. Four of the five members of Utah's congressional delegation are up for re-election in November — Sen. Orrin Hatch, Rep. Rob Bishop and Rep. Joe Cannon, all Republicans, and Rep. Jim Matheson, the lone Democrat. A new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll found that all but Cannon have the support of at least 60 percent of the Utahns surveyed. Cannon, the only incumbent who faced a primary election, had 53 percent. None of the opponents were favored by more than about one-fourth of the Utahns surveyed — a total sample of 922 registered voters statewide for the Senate race and 300 in each congressional district. Even in the most contested race, in the 2nd District, Matheson holds a 36 percent lead over his GOP opponent, state Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Sandy. Sixty percent of the voters said they would pick Matheson if the election were held today and 24 percent would cast a ballot for Christensen. The poll was taken Sept. 25-28 by Dan Jones & Associates and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent for the statewide race and approximately plus or minus 5.5 percent in each congressional district. Voters were also asked about their level of interest in the Nov. 7 general election. Most, 59 percent, expressed moderate interest. Those numbers did not vary much by congressional district. State Republican and Democratic party officials said the results are to be expected in what so far seems to be a pretty low-key election. "It is not an exciting political year," said Jeff Hartley, executive director of the Utah Republican Party. And unless the sales tax increase for transportation projects that's on the ballot in Salt Lake County generates a lot of interest, Hartley predicted a low voter turnout, something that typically favors sitting officeholders. "That's good news for incumbents," Hartley said. But not for Republicans who are trying to unseat Matheson in a largely GOP district. "To close the gap with Matheson, who is a strong incumbent, Christensen needs to remind people why they're Republican," Hartley said. And, he said, the GOP could lose its majority in Congress this election. "The House of Representatives literally hangs in the balance this time," Hartley said. "Although Matheson may be a likeable guy here in Utah, giving control of the House to Washington Democrats is not something Utah voters want to see." Todd Taylor, executive director of the Utah Democratic Party, said that could sway some GOP voters who back Matheson, but not enough to cost him the election. "It is probably their most effective argument for calling people home," Taylor said. Jones said Matheson needs 20 percent of the Republi- cans to vote for him in order to retain his seat. According to the poll, 35 percent of those surveyed who said they were Republicans backed Matheson. Just over half — 53 percent — of the GOP members polled said they would vote for Christensen, while 9 percent said they didn't know who they'd support. None of the respondents who identified themselves as Democrats said they support Christensen. Both Taylor and Hartley said they expect all the races to get closer as the election nears and voters start paying more attention. "I definitely expect things to tighten up a little bit," Taylor said. "People want to do their civic duty."

Western primary takes off - kind of

By Lisa Riley RocheDeseret Morning News
Not everyone is excited about the prospect of the Western states primary promoted by Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. Feb. 5 is the date set for what backers hope will be a Western version of "Super Tuesday" during the 2008 presidential race. So far, only three states have committed to participate — Utah, New Mexico and Arizona. Nevada was selected this summer by the Democratic National Committee to hold a caucus in January 2008, the same month that voters will gather in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to register their presidential preferences at the polls or in party meetings. Huntsman told participants at the Western Presidential Primary Symposium sponsored by the University of Utah's Center for Public Policy and Administration that even with just four of eight states in the region participating in the process early, Utah will benefit. "We've never before forced the body politic, at least at a presidential level, to get smart about our issues," Huntsman said. For too long, he said, Utah and much of the rest of the West have been a fly-over zone for candidates seeking the nation's highest office. The regional primary will attract candidates and their campaign spending to the state, the Republican governor said, as well as focus attention on regional issues such as water development, public land use and immigration. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson also spoke at the symposium in favor of the primary. "The West has a new voice and a real choice in the selection of the next American president," Richardson, a potential Democratic presidential candidate, said. But several panelists at the symposium said that's not going to happen. "This is a pretty small part of the country," said Lance Tarrance, a senior strategist for Straight Talk America, the political action committee organized on behalf of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a likely GOP presidential candidate in 2008. The way to bring attention to the region, Tarrance said, is to focus on a Western state better-known to the Eastern media and political establishment. "I think there's some star appeal to Colorado," he said, suggesting it could "symbolize a lot of the new West." Plus, the region tends to favor Republicans in presidential races, with a few exceptions. If the region isn't seen as competitive, candidates and media outlets trying to control costs aren't going to pay much attention, Tarrance said. Eddie Mahe, a Washington, D.C.-based political strategist whose clients have included former Rep. Enid Greene, also suggested there would be little interest generated by a regional primary in the West. "The more states you put in it, the less you're going to see of any of these candidates," he said, citing the great distances between population centers in the West. "They'll pick a state or maybe two states, and they'll invest all of their resources there." The price tag for the Utah primary is about $2.5 million, according to Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, whose office oversees elections in the state. The 2006 Legislature came up with about a third of that amount. Daniel Kemmis, a senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West and a former Montana lawmaker, said more states should participate. Montana's legislature has rejected funding for a presidential primary in 2008 but is expected to consider the issue again. The primary will help the region work more closely together, Kemmis said. He was a participant on the same symposium panel as the critics of the Western states primary, one intended to answer the question of whether the West had been overlooked by candidates. "I don't think the Rockies can expect either presidential candidates or the rest of the country to take us seriously until we take ourselves seriously as a region," Kemmis said. The primary "should only be viewed as one element of a broader Western strategy." Huntsman later dismissed the criticisms of the Western states primary, which has also been supported in the past with only limited success by former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt and former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer. "It's just getting off the ground and to see the level of activity we've already seen — let the numbers speak for themselves," Huntsman said, citing visits already made to the state by Richardson, McCain and other hopefuls. "We're on the political map."
E-mail: lisa@desnews.com