Mark Towner's Spyglass Spots: Vouchers may boost turnout, upset races

Analysis
Vouchers may boost turnout, upset races
By Steve Gehrke The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 10/02/2007 01:19:34 AM MDT

This could have been a boring election year. No presidential vote. No gubernatorial chase. No congressional clash. Not even a legislative duel. Sure, there is a mayor's race in Salt Lake City, but no Rocky Anderson on the ballot. On its face, the Nov. 6 election - focused mainly on low-profile, nonpartisan city runoffs - would seem like a time voters might stay home in droves and wait for 2008. But then there is that whole education thing: the statewide voucher skirmish and the potential breakup of Utah's largest school district. How might those big issues - with big money behind them and potentially even bigger impacts on the future of schools - affect council contests in, say, Herriman or Holladay? "The good news about the vouchers, and all the money going into it, is that it will absolutely increase voter turnout," said Kirk Jowers, head of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics. "Odd election years are always difficult to get people out, as opposed to a presidential election year like 2008, which should be an exciting year. "So the real question is: Who does it turn out?" Help or hurt incumbents?

Some voters could show up at the polls determined to cast their "yea" or "nay" on vouchers or the proposed east-side split of the Jordan School District only to be surprised by a list of no-name council candidates. These voters could leave those ballot spots blank or, more likely, they could make random selections. That, in theory, could hand challengers a boost over incumbents. "It may be marginal," Jowers said, "but I think the lesser-known candidates are much more likely to be inadvertently impacted by the voucher turnout." Jowers said incumbents especially could falter if too many voucher-focused voters cast ballots in council races. "Sure, the incumbents should have an advantage on name ID, but, the truth is, a lot of these new voters may not even recognize the incumbent candidates below the office of mayor," he said. "The less known the candidates, the more possibility for surprise." Brigham Young University political scientist Kelly Patterson isn't so sure. "Incumbents possess a great deal of advantages in these elections," he said. "Even with this kind of issue [vouchers] on the ballot, it's still hard for challengers to break through. It shouldn't dramatically alter that dynamic." So, added Patterson, whether turnout is 25 percent or 35 percent, the results would tend to favor the same kinds of candidates. Weighty side issues won't necessarily change the winners, just the number of votes they get. "Generally speaking," Patterson said, "the individuals most likely to vote in off-year elections . . . would have a higher level of education, higher level of income, more leisure time and a higher level of political interest and knowledge." University of Utah political scientist Matthew Burbank said it is difficult to predict how vouchers and the proposed district split will affect the fall balloting since both issues were absent from the Sept. 11 primary. "I'm not sure it has a clear, decided impact on any candidate," he said. "There's no partisan campaign, so indeed there is an advantage to incumbents due to name recognition. But, on the other hand, there won't be a huge effect because if you're motivated to go vote, it's probably because you really feel strongly about vouchers. And that's an indication you're pretty well informed." Grass-roots campaigning Jowers noted most council candidates don't have the money to microtarget specific populations, so their strategies probably will come down to the basics: knocking on doors. "Candidates are going to want that favorable name ID," he said, "when these new voters start marking the ballot on things other than the vouchers." And that's exactly what the candidates are doing - at least in West Jordan, where voters will say whether they want vouchers and whether they want to establish their own citywide school district. While District 4 council candidates Clive Killpack and incumbent Lyle Summers aren't taking formal positions on the district split, both are welcoming an expected influx of voters and using their normal strategies to maximize their name recognition. "I've been using door hangers and have made sure people who vote on every election get a mailer or two from me," Killpack said. "I guess being listed first on the ballot does have its advantages, but I'm just hoping the people will have the chance to read the material they get and vote intelligently." Summers agreed - the more voters the merrier. "I have name recognition, and there's the fact that I've got a good campaign planned for the rest of the season," Summers said. "It'll reach a lot of people, and I think the more that come, the better chances I will have." Ballot drop-off In the past, Jowers said, political strategists have taken advantage of headline-grabbing referendums to demand attention, diverting it from controversial politicians who get re-elected by a burst of single-minded voters. "Both parties know there are certain issues that motivate certain segments of the public to get out and vote and become active in elections," he said. "And a lot of these issues hit more of the fringes of their parties, but these are people who are typically pretty reliable to vote straight ticket for one party or another." Patterson said some council races could be affected, but usually "one-issue voters are single-issue voters - they often don't participate where they don't have a lot of information." That, he said, could lead to hefty "ballot drop-off," leaving a large gap in the number of voters who speak up on the voucher issue versus those who weigh in on down-ballot council races. Burbank says the idea of single-issue voters is misleading. ''People who vote are almost never motivated solely by a single issue," he said. ''But this could motivate people who are not that interested in the candidate elections, but would be very interested in the voucher issue or school-district split.'' He said committed voters typically show up in off-year elections. But this fall could see a surge in sporadic voters, casting ballots in races they know little or nothing about.

''They'll figure, 'I might as well vote for them while I'm here,' '' Burbank said. ''But it's not clear who that will benefit.'' sgehrke@sltrib.com