Scot Lehigh

Going for broke in New Hampshire

By Scot Lehigh, Globe Columnist | October 31, 2007

CONCORD, N.H.

ing to be a duel to the death between John McCain and Mitt Romney. But now, Rudy Giuliani is about to attempt a campaign coup: Dealing a stunning setback to both those rivals by winning the nation's first primary himself.

From today's vantage point, you can divide the top four Republican contenders into two categories: Those who have to win New Hampshire and those who can survive without a victory here. Put Romney and McCain in the first group, Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the second.

New Hampshire is absolutely vital to Romney. The former Massachusetts governor is not just a Granite State neighbor, but a vacation homeowner. And, as Romney senior adviser Tom Rath notes, Romney's strategy is "premised on doing as well as we can as early as we can to build momentum," then riding that momentum as the process unfolds.

That's why Romney has invested so heavily here. When he officially filed for the primary Monday, Romney unveiled an endorsement he hopes will help cement a win: that of Judd Gregg, the state's senior senator.

New Hampshire is also a must-win state for McCain, however. The Arizona senator won convincingly here against George W. Bush in 2000. This time around, with his fund-raising flagging, McCain has been reduced to running an early-state effort. With little going in Iowa, New Hampshire is his best chance to launch his formerly front-running campaign back into national orbit.

But in addition to Romney, the two top-tier candidates who don't need a New Hampshire victory were both here Monday - and both sense opportunity.

It's Giuliani who smells it most keenly. Until recently, the former New York City mayor has been focused more on the big states that hold contests on Feb. 5.

That's why one couldn't help but notice that, after spending Sunday and Monday in the state, Giuliani plans to return today - and then again on Friday. Why? Sources in his camp confirm that he now believes he can win here.

Part of it is a sense that Romney has reached a saturation point, and may just prove too slick to stick in New Hampshire. Although he has spent heavily on television advertising, polls show Romney is not that far ahead of Giuliani, who has yet to take to the tube. And though McCain has stabilized his standing, doubts remain about whether he can really regain enough ground to prevail.

Thus the opportunity Giuliani will seek to seize.

"The goal is to be competitive in New Hampshire, but if in fact Rudy could win, that would be a bonus," says former Massachusetts governor Paul Cellucci, a senior Giuliani adviser. "It would really upset the Romney strategy - and it would not be helpful to McCain, either."

What a bit of understatement that is. If Giuliani could make primary day Rudy Tuesday, it would deal a devastating blow to both Romney and McCain.

And then there's Thompson. He has visited New Hampshire only four times so far, but on Monday he was pledging to be back often.

So far, Thompson's strength lies in southern states like South Carolina, where several polls have shown him with a small lead, and Florida, where he's second.

The former Tennessee senator has had little going here, however.

Still, his campaign is hoping for a showing that could provide a bridge to South Carolina on Jan. 19. Finishing, say, second in Iowa and third here would do that, his team thinks.

Judging from Thompson's events on Monday, he has a long way to go. The low-key candidate deals mostly in folksy platitudes, with little by way of specifics or applause lines. An underwhelming example: Speaking of the need to "re-emphasize management," he told a crowd of Northeast Delta Dental employees in Concord: "We've got to . . . put the M back in OMB." Now there's a slogan to make the Republican heart race!

Still, the campaign thinks it has found an issue to use against both Romney and McCain: illegal immigration. Unlikely as it might seem, that has emerged as a charged concern among Republicans here. Look for Thompson to hit it harder in the weeks ahead.

So despite New Hampshire's perpetual worry about its influence being encroached upon, the Republican contest here is shaping up to be more than just an important contest. It may well be the defining event.

Scot Lehigh's e-mail address is lehigh@globe.com.