Giuliani faces minefield for GOP nomination

Giuliani faces minefield for GOP nomination
By Tony Quinn Updated: 07/08/07 7:32 AM

Rudy Giuliani’s lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination is driven by two words: Hillary Clinton. Republicans see in Giuliani the candidate most likely to defeat Clinton in 2008, assuming, as seems more likely all the time, she emerges as the Democratic nominee for president.

Giuliani actually is not the only GOP candidate who runs well against Clinton; Sen. John McCain runs as strongly as he does. In the most recent CNN poll, Giuliani trailed Clinton by a single point, 48 percent to 49 percent; but McCain is behind by only two points, 47 percent to 49 percent. All other GOP candidates did worse.

But winning a presidential nomination is also a matter of luck, and Giuliani has been very lucky thus far. Eight months ago, McCain was the Republican establishment choice and ahead in most polls. But he is also the most closely aligned with the unpopular Bush administration, and the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq.

McCain also suffers from being both the insider choice and an outsider. His stands on many issues, most recently immigration reform, have grated upon grass-roots Republican voters. As McCain’s prospects have declined, Giuliani’s have risen and he is now replacing McCain as the choice of much of the establishment, especially the business wing of the party.

Giuliani also is lucky in that the candidacy of the third top-tier candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, has blocked the rise of any of the second-tier candidates. Former

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