'Super-Duper Tuesday' May Be Too Big to Matter

Sheer Number of States,Timing Will ReinforceImpact of Opening Trio
By JACKIE CALMESJune 15, 2007; Page A6

An unprecedented number of states have scheduled early presidential primaries to grab some influence from the traditional first kingmakers, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. But as the law of unintended consequences would have it, the front-loaded calendar could instead make that opening trio of states -- and roughly a half-million voters in each party -- more decisive than ever.

On Feb. 5 -- widely called "Super-Duper Tuesday" -- nearly two dozen states, from New York to California, may hold what approaches a national primary. In 2004, just nine states had voted by then. The crush in 2008 will mean that no contender has the time and money to stump in all the Feb. 5 states with anything near the intensity candidates do in states with January contests. That is why Florida has defied both parties' rules aimed at minimizing front-loading, and moved up its primaries to Jan. 29 from March; Michigan's Democrats might follow.


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Mark Towner