The Fred factor

The Fred factor
June 10, 2007

BY ALAN FRAM AND TREVOR TOMPSON Associated PressWASHINGTON---- Fred Thompson's expected entry into the tight Republican presidential race is drawing crucial strength from conservatives and older men, vaulting him into the thick of the nomination fight, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll says.

The survey shows the top Democratic contender, Hillary Rodham Clinton, has twice the support from women as her nearest rival, Barack Obama, but dwindling strength among men. Her margin over the Illinois senator has eroded slightly since the last AP-Ipsos poll, in March.
Thompson, who has sandwiched an acting career around a largely anonymous eight years as Tennessee senator, has not formally entered the race. But he already has impressed many people. One in four of his supporters cites his strong character, more than any other GOP candidate. ''He can be kind of Reaganesque in his engaging with people,'' said Ronald Coppinger, 47, a carpenter from Indianapolis, describing a plainspoken style like the late President Reagan's. ''I think that's important.''

That has helped place Thompson firmly in the top tier among GOP contenders in the AP-Ipsos poll released Saturday. It shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 27 percent; Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., at 19 percent; Thompson essentially even with McCain at 17 percent; and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 10 percent.
''It shows America wants somebody with Fred's style, Fred's leadership,'' said former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., a Thompson adviser.

On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Clinton is drawing support from four in 10 women -- a group that accounted for 54 percent of the vote in 2004's key Democratic primaries. One in three of her supporters cites her experience -- the highest rate among Democrats.
''I think women relate more to the needs of people,'' said cashier Jadine Robinson, 52, of Magnolia, Miss.

Clinton had 33 percent in the poll; Obama 21 percent; former Vice President Al Gore, who so far is not a candidate, 20 percent; and former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., 12 percent.
Democratic analysts had no ready explanation why Clinton has lost support from men, especially younger men. Much of this support seems to have moved to Gore. Her chief strategist, Mark Penn, said that could change and noted that younger men do not vote with the frequency that women do.

Clinton, Gore and Obama each draw about one-quarter of Democratic men. Said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who is not working for a candidate: ''If she can hold close in the race among men and dominate among the women, that's the ballgame'' and she will win the nomination.

The AP-Ipsos poll in March did not ask about Thompson. But with strong initial appeal to conservatives -- among the GOP's most loyal and active primary voters -- he seems poised to cause problems for his rivals.
In an AP interview last week, Romney said Thompson's strength in the poll said nothing about voters' views of the active GOP candidates.
''He's a terrific guy and he's been putting bad guys away every week on (the NBC show) 'Law & Order,''' Romney said. ''And he'll go through the same processes we all do, which is building an organization, raising money, being scrutinized thoroughly by everyone.''
In a nod to Giuliani's response to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, one-half of his supporters cite his leadership qualities, far more than any other candidate. McCain's supporters like his experience, while Romney's note his views generally.
Giuliani has lost some support since March -- a period during which his abortion rights views have been a focus -- notably from conservatives, white evangelicals, older voters and women.
Giuliani is still supported by one in four conservatives, slightly more than those backing McCain, Thompson or Romney.

Overall support for McCain and Romney has stayed about even.
Thompson also has shown strong support among older voters, especially men. Three in 10 male Republicans over age 44 said they would pick him.
While that is about the same as with Giuliani, Thompson seems to have gained support from that group at the expense of Giuliani and McCain.
Noting that McCain has been preparing to run since his failed 2000 presidential bid, unaffiliated Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said the virtual tie between McCain and Thompson ''tells you something about Thompson's potential and McCain's weaknesses.''
John Weaver, McCain's chief strategist, said Thompson's impact is not yet measurable and that still is early in the campaign.
Among Democrats, voters most often cite Obama's freshness on the national scene' Gore's stance on issues, especially the environment; and Edwards' character.
For Obama, the challenge is arguing that ''America needs a transformational leader even if that person lacks the experience of the other candidates,'' Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said.
Clinton still has a significant lead among nonwhites and lower-income voters, enjoying the support of half of both groups. She has been losing ground among whites, who are about evenly divided among the top four Democratic names.
The AP-Ipsos poll involved telephone interviews with 1,000 adults from Monday to Wednesday. It had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The margin of sampling error for the 541 Democrats or people leaning Democratic was plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was plus or minus 5 percentage points for the 356 Republicans or Republican leaners.

Latest AP-Ipsos poll shows Fred Thompson's entry into the GOP presidential race would draw considerable support. The poll surveyed 356 Republicans and Republican-leaning voters and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

27%: Rudy Giuliani
19%: John McCain
17%: Fred Thompson