Hillary camp embarrassed after 'ignore Iowa' memo is leaked

Hillary camp embarrassed after 'ignore Iowa' memo is leaked

Friday, May 25, 2007

By Rupert Cornwell in Washington

Hillary Clinton's super-organised, impeccably on-message campaign for the White House has suffered a first embarrassment with the leak of an internal memo that urges her to skip the key early caucuses in Iowa - on the ground she has better places to spend money than on a contest she may well lose.

Yesterday, Clinton aides were playing down the memo as the unsolicited musings of a minion, which had never been seen by the lady herself and her most senior advisers. They insisted she would make a major effort in Iowa, whose caucuses - set for 14 January next year - traditionally kick off the primary season.


"It's not the opinion of the campaign," Ms Clinton herself said in response to a question about the memo, and "It's not my opinion."


In fact, the document, entitled An Alternative Nomination Strategy, was written by her deputy campaign manager Mike Henry. At the very least, analysts say, it reflects divisions within the camp of the 2008 Democratic front-runner, as well as the new problems thrown up by the tightly bunched primary calendar.


Iowa's role in the nominating process has usually been pivotal - 13 out of the 14 most recent major party nominees won either there or in New Hampshire, the first primary state (the exception being Bill Clinton in 1992). But its traditionally liberal, anti-war Democratic electorate is not friendly territory for Ms Clinton, who still refuses to disown her 2002 vote authorising the Iraq invasion.


John Edwards, the 2004 vice-presidential nominee who has turned resolutely anti-war, leads in most Iowa polls. He is followed by Barack Obama, who opposed the war from before its outset.


But the question is, is Iowa, or for that matter New Hampshire, really that important any longer? "I think the old system [giving such importance to these two states] is about to collapse, and it will happen this year," Mr Henry wrote, pointing to the compression of the calendar and the emergence of what is in effect a "national primary" on 5 February.


On that date, California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois are among 20 states holding primaries. Florida, the fourth largest state in terms of delegates to the nominating convention in Denver, has gone further still, pushing its primary to 29 January. The bunching has forced every candidate to rethink their strategy. The development "forces us to reassess... where our time and money are best spent," the memo reads.


The front-loading means both party nominations could be, in effect, settled in February, leaving a six-month gap before the conventions.


Fiercely proud of their "first in the nation" status, Iowa and New Hampshire have said they will move their votes forward as far as necessary, to preserve their importance.