The case for Giuliani

The case for Giuliani

By CHUCK RAASCH
GNS Political Writer

May 24, 2007

WASHINGTON — When Rudy Giuliani was again cornered on his views favoring abortion rights, gay rights and gun control at the May 15 Republican debate, he offered a defense that got scant attention but could end up being the Republicans’ campaign slogan in 2008.

Giuliani threw out the political equivalent of a bullfighter’s red cape to a Republican audience: the possibility of a Hillary Clinton presidency.

“There’s something really big at stake here,” Giuliani said. “We’re looking at a race here in which the leading candidate for president of the United States (Clinton) has said that the unfettered free market is the most disastrous thing in modern America. ... She’s also said, with regard to taxes, that we have to take money from you in order to give it to the common good.”

Republicans, Giuliani pleaded, “should be uniting to make certain that what the liberal media is talking about, our inevitable defeat, doesn’t happen.”

Giuliani’s later smackdown of libertarian Ron Paul, who’d suggested that 9/11 was the result of U.S. involvement in Iraq, grabbed all the headlines. But the electability argument seems to be growing among Republicans. Given his differences with rank-and-file Republicans, it may turn out to be Giuliani’s only argument, but it also explains why his nomination looks more likely than it did six months ago.

Democrats have been there, done that, with John Kerry in 2004, demonstrating electability is no proven path to the White House. But in 2008, the prospect of another Clinton in the White House may be the only thing strong enough to keep dispirited Republicans together, and excited. Giuliani continues to lead national GOP primary polls because his post-9/11 mayoral-national security persona continues to trump his considerable differences with the Republican base on the social issues that coalesce that base. The argument for Giuliani is buttressed by polls showing him leading Clinton in the most important swing states.

Here is Giuliani’s case, by the numbers:

— He remains, by a healthy margin, the most popular candidate on the national presidential stage, even more popular than Sen. Barack Obama. While Clinton’s favorable rating was 50 percent and her unfavorable was 47 percent in a May 4-6 USA TODAY-Gallup poll, Giuliani’s was 61-24. That bested Obama (50-24), Republican rival John McCain (50-30) and Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards (49-31). The 9/11 attack may have made Giuliani the closest thing to a Teflon candidate we’ll see in 2008, even more than Obama, whose buzz is based more on promise than performance.

— In late April polls, Quinnipiac University had Giuliani leading Clinton in the swing states of New Jersey (by 9 percentage points), Florida (8), Ohio (5) and Pennsylvania (4). In all three states, ex-Vice President Al Gore did slightly better against Giuliani than Clinton did, though Gore is not running. By contrast, McCain and Clinton were virtually tied in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

If it is Clinton versus Giuliani in 2008, the ex-New York mayor would have a slight head start in the Electoral College. Giuliani would likely begin as a prohibitive favorite in Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming. A few of those states have not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. Together, they have 75 electoral votes.

Clinton, meanwhile, might only have slam dunks in the District of Columbia (3 electoral votes), possibly Massachusetts (12), and potentially California (55), although there are signs Republicans could be competitive with either McCain or Giuliani in California for the first time since 1988. In an early April Field Poll, Giuliani trailed Clinton by 13 percentage points — 53-40 — while Clinton led McCain by just 5 in the same poll.

Pundits who expected Giuliani to fold in a New York minute once his views on abortion and gay rights became known were wrong. He’s been battered twice in Republican debates now, provided a confusing answer on abortion in one and still remains the GOP front-runner.

The day after the South Carolina debate, veteran direct-mail operative Richard Viguerie said if Giuliani is the nominee in ’08, the Republican Party would be history.

“Rudy Giuliani is wrong on all the social issues, is wrong on the Second Amendment and is pretty much a blank slate on all other issues of importance to conservatives,” Viguerie said. “If the Republican Party nominates him, it is saying to the American people that it has lost all purpose except the raw political desire to hold power.”

Maybe so. But in ’08, the desire to deny the Clintons political power may be the one thing that can hold Republicans together and bring them back.

Chuck Raasch is political editor for Gannett News Service, 7950 Jones Branch Road, McLean, VA 22107. Send e-mail to craasch@gns.gannett.com. Read his Furthermore blog in the Opinion section of StatesmanJournal.com.